The last nuclear treaty between the us and russia has expired: could a new arms race be on the way?

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The last nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia expires this week, marking a worrying moment for global security

The treaty known as New START, signed in 2010 by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, expired on February 5, 2026, and there are no ongoing negotiations to extend it or replace it with a new one.

This agreement limited the long-range strategic nuclear forces of the two nations, which together possess about 87% of all the world’s nuclear weapons.

It established clear limits: a maximum of 1,550 nuclear warheads deployed on intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and heavy bombers; up to 700 deployed vectors (missiles and bombers); and a total of 800 launchers, including those deployed and those in reserve.

Beyond the numbers, the treaty included important verification mechanisms, such as semi-annual data exchanges, near-daily notifications of nuclear force movements, surprise inspections of facilities, and a bilateral commission to resolve disputes.

These rules helped reduce tensions and increase transparency since they came into effect in 2011, with the limits being fully met in 2018.

The treaty was extended for five years in 2021, but cannot be extended again.

In 2023, Russia suspended participation in inspections and data exchanges, citing difficulties caused by the war in Ukraine, although it maintained the numerical limits.

In September 2025, President Vladimir Putin proposed that both countries continue to respect the limits for one more year after the treaty expires, with the possibility of extension, provided the United States did the same.

Donald Trump commented that the idea “sounded good,” but there was no formal official response from the US, and he even said that if the treaty expires, it “really expires,” promising to negotiate something “better” in the future-possibly including China, which refuses to participate in trilateral agreements because it has a much smaller arsenal (less than 12% of the American and 11% of the Russian).

Without the treaty, both countries lose the rules that limit their strategic nuclear forces and, most importantly, the means of mutual verification.

This generates uncertainty, distrust, and the risk of escalation.

Experts warn that both Russia and the US could rapidly increase the number of deployed nuclear warheads-by up to 60% in the Russian case and 110% in the American case-simply by loading more warheads onto existing missiles and bombers, potentially doubling their arsenals in a short time.

Without inspections or data sharing, each side tends to plan for the worst-case scenario, fueling an arms race.

The end of the New START treaty represents the termination of more than 50 years of bilateral agreements that controlled nuclear weapons between the two superpowers.

For the first time since the 1970s, there will be no legally binding limits nor active negotiations underway.

Organizations such as the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the Federation of American Scientists warn that this could accelerate a new era of nuclear proliferation, especially with emerging technologies and the growth of the Chinese arsenal further complicating the scenario.

Although nuclear disarmament seems distant at the moment, some experts argue that the two sides could, at least informally, agree to maintain the current limits while new negotiations are prepared.

Ideally, there would be progress toward a verifiable agreement involving all nuclear-armed nations, fulfilling the commitment of the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to pursue total disarmament.

However, recent actions-such as Russian nuclear threats and American modernizations-point in the opposite direction.

The disappearance of this last mechanism of bilateral control makes the world more vulnerable to misunderstandings and dangerous escalations.

Published in 02/06/2026 23h48

Portuguese version

Text adapted by AI (Grok) and translated via Google API in the English version. Images from public image libraries or credits in the caption.

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