A new poll on voting intentions for the 2026 presidential elections, conducted by the Futura Institute with support from Apex, reveals a favorable scenario for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a potential direct confrontation with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)
The poll was conducted between January 15th and 19th, 2026, with 2,000 interviews, a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, and registration with the Superior Electoral Court.
Six different scenarios were simulated for the first round.
In three of them, Flávio Bolsonaro appears numerically ahead of Lula; in the other three, the current president leads in voting intentions.
The senator’s clearest advantage emerges in one of the simulations, in which he reaches 43.8% of voting intentions, against Lula’s 38.7%.
In this scenario, Governor Eduardo Leite (PSD-RS) also participates with 4.2%, and Renan Santos (Missão) with 2.8%.
Blank, null, and unanswered votes total 7.5%, while undecided voters or those who did not know how to answer represent 2.9%.
As the difference exceeds the margin of error, Flávio leads alone in this configuration.
In another scenario, which includes names such as Governor TarcÃsio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) with 10.5%, Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil-GO), Romeu Zema (Novo-MG), and Aldo Rebelo (DC), Lula registers 37% and Flávio 33.3%.
Even so, the text of the survey highlights that Lula does not surpass Flávio outside the margin of error in any of the six simulations tested.
In the second round, the scenario becomes even more favorable to the senator.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, the PL representative wins with 48.1% against Lula’s 41.9%.
Blank and null votes total 8.9%, and undecided voters represent only 1.1%.
Comparing this to a previous poll by the same institute, conducted in December 2025-when there was a technical tie between the two, with 42.1% each-a clear positive evolution for Flávio is observed.
The poll also evaluated other second-round matchups.
Flávio Bolsonaro appears ahead in all six simulations in which he participates.
Lula, on the other hand, appears numerically behind names like TarcÃsio de Freitas, Ratinho Jr., and Ronaldo Caiado, but ahead of Romeu Zema and Eduardo Leite.
This poll reinforces the idea that Flávio Bolsonaro is consolidating himself as one of the main opposition figures with the potential to challenge Lula in a national presidential election in 2026.
Published in 01/23/2026 05h53
Text adapted by AI (Grok) and translated via Google API in the English version. Images from public image libraries or credits in the caption.
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