At the end of 2025, Brazil celebrated a milestone in the labor market: the unemployment rate fell to 5
1% in the quarter ending in December, the lowest level since the beginning of the IBGE’s historical series in 2012. The annual average was 5.6%, a significant reduction compared to 6.6% in 2024, and the government highlighted the record of more than 103 million people employed.
These numbers, released by the Continuous National Household Sample Survey, were received with official optimism, as a sign of economic recovery and job creation.
However, behind this official statistic, an important discussion arises about what these percentages really represent in the daily lives of Brazilians.
Analysts and critics point out that the methodology used by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), while technically correct, only considers unemployed those who are not working and have actively sought employment in recent weeks.
This leaves out millions of individuals in precarious situations, who are not included in the official count and end up “invisible” in the statistics.
Among these groups are the discouraged workers, people who would like to work but have given up looking for a job because they believe they will not find opportunities, whether due to lack of qualifications, distance, or repeated frustrations.
There are also the underemployed, who work few hours a week and want more, but are classified as employed even though they face underemployment.
Furthermore, high levels of informality, intermittent work, and dependence on social programs like Bolsa FamÃlia contribute to a reality where many do not have a stable income or full labor rights.
A critical analysis, by professor and writer David Gertner, based in the United States, proposes a broader perspective.
By including these excluded groups from the restricted workforce-approximately 15 million people in conditions of underutilization or discouragement-the real unemployment rate could reach 16.6%.
This number is not intended to replace the official figure, but to highlight how methodological exclusion masks the true extent of the problem.
While the official unemployment rate fell, the annual rate of underutilization of the workforce, which includes the unemployed, underemployed due to insufficient hours, and part of the potential workforce, registered 14.5% in 2025, representing approximately 16.6 million people-the lowest in the series, but still an indicator that the labor market does not fully and dignifiedly absorb everyone.
This difference between the official data and society’s perception reflects a larger debate.
For some, the low numbers show real progress, with expansion of employment and reduced pressure for work.
For others, they create an illusion of prosperity, as they ignore the plight of those who live on odd jobs, depend on aid, or have simply given up on dreaming of formal employment.
The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) follows international standards, but in the Brazilian context, marked by inequality and high levels of informality, the official figures may underestimate social and economic exclusion.
The result is a paradox: while the government celebrates positive records, many Brazilians continue to feel the effects of a lack of decent work.
A true recovery of the labor market requires not only lower unemployment figures, but also quality jobs, a reduction in precarious employment, and the real inclusion of those currently marginalized.
Until that happens, the question remains: which unemployment rate is Brazil willing to acknowledge? The 5.1% that pleases the headlines, or the 16.6% that echoes in the reality of millions”
Published in 02/12/2026 01h53
Text adapted by AI (Grok) and translated via Google API in the English version. Images from public image libraries or credits in the caption.
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